一个比预期更干燥的未来,得到了近地表面相对湿度观测的支持
Hervé Douville1, Katharine M Willett2
1CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, 31057 Toulouse Cedex, France.
Science advances
|July 28, 2023
概括
全球气候模型在预测陆地水循环方面显示出显著的不确定性. 使用温度和湿度的观测显示了不可避免的大陆干燥趋势,特别是在中度,突出了适应策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 全球气候模型对陆地水循环预测的特定模型具有很高的依赖性.
- 准确预测未来的气候条件,包括水资源的可用性,对于全球环境管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用观测数据限制21世纪大陆近地表面相对湿度的预测.
- 评估不同观测约束对气候模型预测干燥趋势的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了经过质量控制的,网格化的温度和湿度的观测数据.
- 通过整合地表温度和相对湿度观测,进行受约束的气候模型预测.
主要成果:
- 大陆干燥的预测仅仅使用表面温度观测的条件是有限的.
- 综合温度和相对湿度的观测结果显示,大陆的干燥趋势是不可避免的,尤其是在北方中度地区.
- 人类气溶掩盖了北方中度的长期干燥趋势,直到20世纪80年代末.
结论:
- 缓解政策应该考虑超出全球变暖水平的因素.
- 迫切需要强有力的适应战略,因为预计大陆的干燥.
- 陆地表面过程可能会导致气候模型的不确定性.
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