在气候变化下,南方军 (Spodoptera eridania) 的全球潜在地理分布
Yu Zhang1, Haoxiang Zhao1, Yuhan Qi1
1State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100193, China.
Biology
|July 29, 2023
概括
南方军虫 (Spodoptera eridania) 正在全球蔓延,破坏和大豆等作物. 气候变化将扩大其适合的息地,需要在未被入侵的地区加强植物卫生措施.
科学领域:
- 农业昆虫学 农业昆虫学
- 侵入性物种 生态学 侵袭性物种 生态学
- 气候变化影响研究 影响研究
背景情况:
- 南方军 (Spodoptera eridania),一个来自热带美洲的害虫,已经入侵非洲和印度.
- 这种侵袭性害虫对重要作物,如麻,大豆和西红造成重大损害.
研究的目的:
- 预测在气候变化下Spodoptera eridania的潜在地理分布.
- 确定影响其传播的关键生物气候变量.
- 为未入侵地区的植物卫生战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用了一个优化的MaxEnt模型,包含19个生物气候变量.
- 在气候变化情景下分析了当前和未来的潜在分布 (SSP5-8.5).
主要成果:
- 年度降水量 (bio12),最热季度温度 (bio10) 和最干燥月份降水量 (bio14) 是分布的关键因素.
- 合适的息地预计将覆盖大约3426.43×10^4平方公里,主要位于美洲,欧洲,非洲,亚洲和大洋洲.
- 预计未来的气候变化将扩大并将合适的息地转移到更高的度.
结论:
- 斯波多特拉 (Spodoptera eridania) 构成了对全球作物生产的重大和日益严重的威胁.
- 积极的植物卫生措施对于欧盟,东南亚和澳大利亚等国家来说至关重要,以防止入侵.
- 了解生物气候驱动因素是控制气候变化下的侵袭性害虫传播的关键.
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