小麦,玉米和大米对温度变化,降水,CO2度和基于作物模拟方法的不确定性的反应
Mengting Qin1, Ennan Zheng1, Dingmu Hou1
1School of Hydraulic and Electric Power, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150080, China.
Plants (Basel, Switzerland)
|July 29, 2023
概括
全球气候变化对作物产量产生重大影响,气温上升减少了收获,降水量增加带来了一些好处. 适应策略和更高的二氧化碳水平可以减轻这些负面影响,增强农业的弹性.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化对农业生产力构成重大威胁,影响了小麦,玉米和大米等关键作物.
- 现有的关于气候变化对作物产量影响的研究由于各种方法和气候模型而面临不确定性.
- 评估未来的后果和适应战略需要对气候变化对作物生产的影响进行全面分析.
研究的目的:
- 从68项已发表的研究 (1842个样本) 开发一个关于未来作物产量变化的全面数据库.
- 研究气候变量 (温度,降水,二氧化碳) 与作物产量变化之间的定量关系.
- 分析适应措施的影响,减少气候变化影响评估中的模拟不确定性.
主要方法:
- 编制了关于未来作物产量变化的68项已发表研究中的1842个样本的数据库.
- 采用局部多项式方法来分析作物产量对温度,降水和二氧化碳变化的反应.
- 利用线性混合效应回归模型来探索定量关系,并确定影响收益率变化的重要因素.
主要成果:
- 预计最高气温上升1°C将使作物产量减少4.21%;降水量增加1%预计将使产量增加0.43%.
- 大气中较高的二氧化碳度和适应措施显著减轻了温度升温的负面影响.
- 与没有适应措施相比,作物产量增加了64.09%,使用多种气候模型减少了模拟不确定性.
结论:
- 最大温度,降水,适应策略,研究区域和气候模型是影响作物产量变化的关键因素.
- 适应措施和升高的二氧化碳水平对于提高作物抵御气候变化影响的弹性至关重要.
- 这些发现为制定政策和制定有效的适应计划提供了必要的数据,以确保未来的作物生产.
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