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消除乙型肝炎的全球投资案例:一项建模研究

Christopher P Seaman¹, Phillip Luong², Yinzong Xiao²

¹Burnet Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.

The lancet. Gastroenterology & hepatology

|July 30, 2023

概括

投资于乙型肝炎的消除可以获得显著的回报. 实现2030年目标可以避免数百万人的死亡和感染,并证明具有实质性的经济效益.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
卫生经济学卫生经济学
流行病学流行病学

背景情况:

乙型肝炎导致全球显著的死亡率,世卫组织的目标是到2030年消除这种疾病.
资金缺口和低估疾病经济影响阻碍了进展.

研究的目的:

模拟实现乙型肝炎消除目标 (90%的疫苗接种,90%的诊断,80%的治疗) 的成本和收益.
评估乙型肝炎死亡率的经济负担和消除策略投资回报.

主要方法:

一个动态的数学模型模拟B型肝炎的传播,疾病进展和死亡率在六个世卫组织地区.
估计到2030年,2040年或2050年实现消除目标的成本和收益.

主要成果:

如果不增加干预,乙型肝炎的死亡率将导致7843.5亿美元的生产力损失 (2022-50).
实现2030年的目标可以避免2564万例感染和863万例死亡.
从社会角度来看,该战略是节省成本的,到2050年将产生990.03亿美元的净经济效益.

结论:

乙型肝炎是一个巨大的,低估的经济负担.
对乙型肝炎消除策略的投资提供了显著的健康和经济回报.
延迟实现干预目标会降低健康和经济效益.

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