混合模型中因模拟规范模糊或不完整而导致的重复测量的I型错误率膨胀
Sebastian Häckl1, Armin Koch1, Florian Lasch2
1Hannover Medical School, Institute of Biostatistics, Hannover, Niedersachsen, Germany.
Pharmaceutical statistics
|July 31, 2023
概括
在临床试验中,对重复测量 (MMRM) 混合模型的不精确规范可能会使家庭智能型I错误率 (T1E) 膨胀,可能会损害确认证据. 这项研究量化了这种通货膨胀,显示了在模糊的MMRM模型中显著的T1E率上升.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 临床试验方法论 临床试验方法论
- 统计推理 统计推理
背景情况:
- 控制家庭智能类型I错误率 (T1E) 对于确认性临床试验至关重要.
- 经常使用重复测量 (MMRM) 的混合模型,但在协议中规定的规范往往很差.
- 对T1E的MMRM规范模两可的影响尚未完全量化.
研究的目的:
- 为了量化T1E利率通胀的大小,由未指定的MMRM模型项目产生的.
- 调查T1E通货膨胀如何根据未指定的模型参数的类型和数量而变化.
- 评估试验特征对确认性试验中T1E通胀的影响.
主要方法:
- 模拟了一项随机,双盲,并行组,III期临床试验,假设没有治疗效果.
- 使用多个MMRM与不精确的协议规格兼容的模拟数据进行分析.
- 每个MMRM分析集群的T1E估计率用于评估通货膨胀.
主要成果:
- 对于模两可的MMRM规范,观察到显著的T1E率通货膨胀,最高达到7.6% [7.1%; 8.1%].
- T1E通胀的程度取决于未指定的模型项目的类型和数量,样本大小和分配比率.
- 对干扰参数的不精确规范可能不会显著膨胀T1E,但结果可能低估了真正的膨胀.
结论:
- 临床试验中不准确的MMRM规范可能导致T1E率大幅上.
- 这种通货膨胀可能会严重影响产生可靠的证据的能力.
- 在关键试验中,要保持统计完整性,必须对MMRM进行仔细和精确的规范.
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