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全球价值链的融合速度:前进或后退的联系
Josephine Wuri1,2, Tri Widodo1,3, Amirullah Setya Hardi1
1Faculty of Economics and Business, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.
Heliyon
|July 31, 2023
概括
由于COVID-19大流行,全球价值链 (GVC) 的参与减少,影响发展中国家. 在GVC参与中的收速度各不相同,外国直接投资发挥着关键作用.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 全球价值链对于发展中国家融入全球经济至关重要.
- 随着COVID-19大流行,全球贸易出现了重大不确定性,可能会破坏全球贸易和GVC参与.
- 了解GVC内部的融合动态对于评估经济发展轨迹至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球价值链 (GVC) 参与趋同的速度.
- 分析前期和后期GVC链接对增值的不同贡献.
- 检查外国直接投资 (FDI) 对GVC融合和COVID-19大流行早期影响的影响.
主要方法:
- 在动态面板数据分析中采用系统通用时刻方法 (GMM).
- 使用前向和后向GVC参与方法来区分增值贡献.
- 分析了亚洲开发银行 (2010-2019) 多区域输出输出数据库,以查看疫情前的趋势和早期的疫情影响.
主要成果:
- 在前进和落后的GVC参与中都发现了趋同的证据,各国组的速度各不相同.
- 与发达经济体相比,东南亚国家联盟 (东盟) 国家显示出更快的GVC趋同.
- 发达经济体呈现出更快的GVC落后趋同,FDI被确定为GVC参与的重要因素.
结论:
- 全球价值链 (GVC) 参与表现出趋同,但前进和后退联系之间以及国家组之间速度有显著差异.
- 外国直接投资 (FDI) 是影响一个国家在全球价值链中的整合和融合的关键驱动因素.
- 随着COVID-19的流行,GVC的整体参与受到明显的负面影响,凸显了相互连接的经济体的脆弱性.
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