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评估由气候变化和耕地入侵决定的陆地生态系统未来的全球分布
Richard D Robertson1, Alessandro De Pinto2, Nicola Cenacchi1
1International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC USA.
概括
气候变化对全球自然生态系统产生重大影响,造成的息地变化比农业用地扩张更多. 保护生态系统需要了解气候变化影响与土地利用.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 自然生态系统的分布受气候和农业的影响.
- 未来土地使用/土地覆盖变化 (LULCC) 预测经常强调农业扩张取代自然息地.
- 气候变化对自然生态系统的直接影响,与农业入侵并发,研究较少.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候变化与农田扩张对自然生态系统的相对重要性.
- 模拟气候变化和耕地入侵对全球植被的综合影响.
主要方法:
- 整合一个适应气候的自然植被模型.
- 纳入一个农田分配算法.
- 对气候变化影响与耕地侵蚀的比较分析.
主要成果:
- 在全球范围内,气候变化对自然植被造成的变化 (收益和损失) 比农业扩张更大.
- 在亚马逊,超过六分之一的热带雨林面积预计将因气候变化而丧失,农田的影响最小.
- 气候变化对自然生态系统的影响是巨大的和广泛的.
结论:
- 气候变化对自然生态系统构成重大威胁,可能破坏保护政策.
- 包括气候变化影响和农业用地在内的本地化分析对于有效的长期生态系统保护至关重要.
- 未来的保护战略必须明确地解决气候变化和土地利用转换的双重压力.
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