中国行业的发展情景和环境影响:进出口转型的影响
Shupeng Li1,2, Tingan Zhang1,2
1School of Metallurgy, Northeastern University, Shenyang, 110819 China.
概括
中国行业 (ALD) 的需求将在2025年达到顶峰,为资源节约和减排提供了机会. 促进贸易和清洁能源可以推动ALD的可持续发展.
科学领域:
- 工业生态学 工业生态学
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 初级生产是能源,资源和排放密集的.
- 作为世界上最大的生产商,中国的行业面临着巨大的环境压力.
- 全球贸易的动态影响了ALD的环境足迹.
研究的目的:
- 调查中国ALD的资源节约,节能和减排潜力.
- 分析进出口贸易转型对中国ALD的影响.
- 评估中国ALD可持续发展的战略.
主要方法:
- 材料流量分析 (MFA) 材料流量分析
- 场景分析 (A,B和C场景)
- 预测人均库存和国内需求.
主要成果:
- 到2030年,中国人均储量将达到415公斤.
- 国内需求将在2025年达到4400万 (MT),到2030年降至36MT.
- 减少出口 (B和C情景) 限制了初级需求和环境负担.
- 到2030年将水力发电增加到25%,可以将温室气体排放量减少12%.
结论:
- 进出口战略和能源组合转型对于中国的ALD可持续性至关重要.
- 减少产品出口可以显著减少对环境的影响.
- 转向更清洁的能源,如水电,对于减排至关重要.
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