基于人工智能方法的悬浮沉积物负载预测建模:热带地区作为一个案例研究
Mohammed Falah Allawi1, Sadeq Oleiwi Sulaiman1, Khamis Naba Sayl1
1Dams and Water Resources Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University Of Anbar, Ramadi, Iraq.
Heliyon
|July 31, 2023
概括
准确的悬浮沉积物负载 (SSL) 预测对于水资源管理至关重要. 一个新的长期短期存储器 (LSTM) 模型显著提高了在柔佛河的SSL预测准确性,为环境规划提供了可靠的工具.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 悬浮沉积物负载 (SSL) 显著影响环境健康,农业和水资源规划.
- SSL沉积会改变河流的流动,影响水生生态系统,并可能导致河流的流向变化,需要准确的预测.
- 现有的SSL预测模型面临的挑战是由于特定站点的数据,模型的复杂性和数据的局限性,导致低于最佳准确性.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个改进的模型来预测悬浮沉积物负载 (SSL).
- 解决SSL河流预测中以前机器学习模型的局限性.
- 提高SSL预测的准确性和可靠性,用于水资源决策.
主要方法:
- 一个长短期内存 (LSTM) 模型被提出用于SSL预测.
- 将LSTM模型与多层感知器 (MLP),支向量回归 (SVR) 和随机森林 (RF) 模型进行了比较.
- 利用了2010-2020年马来西亚霍尔河的数据,包括悬浮沉积物负载和河流流量.
主要成果:
- 拟议的LSTM模型在预测和实际SSL之间实现了高相关系数 (0.97).
- 该LSTM模型表现出卓越的性能,最小根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 为148.4/天.
- 该模型还实现了最低平均绝对误差 (MAE) 33.43/天,这表明预测准确度很高.
结论:
- 长短期记忆 (LSTM) 模型为悬浮沉积物负载预测提供了一个高度准确和可靠的方法.
- 该模型的性能表明,它可用于全球类似河流系统的应用.
- 使用LSTM模型进行准确的SSL预测可以显著帮助水资源管理者进行规划和环境保护工作.
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