预测煤电厂的退休年龄和随机森林回归的锁定
Achmed Edianto1, Gregory Trencher2, Niccolò Manych3,4
1Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Tohoku University, Miyagi, Japan.
Patterns (New York, N.Y.)
|July 31, 2023
概括
这项研究预测,全球大多数燃煤发电厂 (CFPP) 将提前退役,从而减少碳排放. 然而,由于高度依赖煤炭,一些国家面临着退休这些发电厂的重大挑战.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 加快燃煤发电厂 (CFPP) 退役对于缓解气候变化至关重要.
- 多重障碍阻碍了全球CFPP的及时关闭.
- 了解影响历史退休的因素是预测未来趋势的关键.
研究的目的:
- 预测全球CFPP的未来退休年龄.
- 预测相关的碳排放,并评估煤炭发电的锁定.
- 确定影响CFPP退休和国家特定挑战的因素.
主要方法:
- 利用监督机器学习来分析CFPP历史退休数据.
- 根据影响过去退休的因素开发了一个预测模型.
- 将模型应用于66个国家的6,541个运行或正在建设的CFPP单元的数据集.
主要成果:
- 与历史平均水平相比,预计63%的CFPP单位将提前退休 (约为1. 40年) 的时间.
- 预计排放量比如果历史退休趋势继续下去低38%.
- 一个"锁定指数"表明,在高度依赖煤炭,大容量或年轻植物年龄的国家,提前退休存在重大挑战.
结论:
- 该模型预测全球加快CFPP退役,从而大幅减少排放.
- 在依赖煤炭的国家,CFPP提前退休存在重大挑战.
- 政策干预可能是必要的,以克服障碍,加快在脆弱国家CFPP关闭.
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