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Updated: Jul 20, 2025

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热带气旋应对气候变化的机制在社区地球系统模型中
René M van Westen1, Henk A Dijkstra1, Nadia Bloemendaal2,3
1Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
概括
气候变化影响热带气旋 (TC) 频率在海洋盆地不同. 未来的气候模拟显示北大西洋的TC较少,但西太平洋的TC较多,受海洋循环变化的影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 气候变化显著影响全球天气模式,包括热带气旋 (TC) 起源频率.
- 了解未来气候情景下的TC活动的区域差异对于影响评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查北大西洋和西太平洋热带气旋频率在1%的二氧化碳增加场景下预测的变化.
- 探索海洋循环和海面温度反应在推动区域TC变化的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用高分辨率气候模型组合进行当前和未来 (1% pCO2) 模拟.
- 分析了北大西洋和西太平洋盆地热带气旋起源频率的变化.
- 研究了海洋的南部翻转循环和空气-海流对TC响应的影响.
主要成果:
- 预计北大西洋热带气旋频率的减少.
- 预计西太平洋地区热带气旋频率的增加.
- 观察到的相反趋势与盆地特定的海面温度和由海洋循环变化驱动的空气-海流量反应有关.
结论:
- 海洋气候变化在调节区域热带气旋活动方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 预计未来的气候变化将导致北大西洋和西太平洋盆地之间的TC频率趋势分歧.
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