社会经济系统转型的途径以马尔科夫链表达
Vanessa Jine Schweizer1,2, Alastair David Jamieson-Lane3,4, Hua Cai5,6
1Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America.
PloS one
|July 31, 2023
概括
这项研究通过使用马尔科夫链来探索所有系统演变来增强交叉影响平衡 (CIB) 分析. 调查结果表明,优先考虑经济发展与教育一起,以避免低收入国家的人口陷.
科学领域:
- 社会经济系统分析分析社会经济系统分析.
- 系统动态 系统动态
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 交叉影响平衡 (CIB) 分析为复杂的社会经济系统提供了一个系统理论的视角.
- 现有的CIB工具仅限于单个场景分析和识别系统吸引因素.
- 需要研究更广泛的系统进化范围的方法.
研究的目的:
- 通过开发一种模拟所有可能的系统演变的方法来增强CIB分析.
- 通过对CIB应用的马尔科夫链方法来研究系统动态.
- 分析人口转型作为增强的CIB方法的案例研究.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种新的方法来表示CIB场景作为马尔科夫链中的过渡.
- 将增强的CIB方法应用于三个变量的人口转型系统 (27种场景).
- 实验了四种不同的方法来构建CIB马尔科夫链.
主要成果:
- 马尔科夫连锁方法成功地复制了传统的CIB调查结果,用于人口转型系统.
- 分析揭示了对系统过渡途径的洞察力,尽管可能会丢失一些关于系统吸引力的信息.
- 模型结果表明,如果没有优先考虑的经济发展和教育,低收入国家可能陷入人口陷.
结论:
- 增强的CIB方法通过考虑所有潜在路径,提供了更全面的系统演变视图.
- 为低收入国家摆脱人口陷,优先考虑经济发展以及教育成果至关重要.
- 建议进行进一步的研究,以在更复杂的系统上验证方法论发现.
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