隐藏携带许可证与美国枪支谋杀之间的关系:一个相互的县级分析
Richard Stansfield1, Daniel Semenza2,3, Ian Silver4
1Rutgers University Camden, 405-407 Cooper Street, Camden, NJ, 08102, USA. Richard.stansfield@rutgers.edu.
概括
增加隐藏携带武器 (CCW) 许可证与更多的枪杀案有关,而不是更少. 这项研究强调了与扩大枪支携带相关的安全风险,敦促负责任的枪支所有权和预防性法律.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 隐藏携带武器 (CCW) 法律在美国各地大幅扩大.
- CCW许可证与暴力犯罪率 (尤其是杀人) 之间的关系仍然是公共卫生和安全研究的关键领域.
- 之前的研究结果不一,需要强有力的方法方法来理解枪支的可用性和暴力之间的复杂相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查隐藏携带武器 (CCW) 许可证与谋杀率之间的相互关系,县级关系.
- 采用先进的统计建模来考虑时间动态和潜在的混因素.
- 提供关于扩大隐藏枪支携带的公共安全影响的经验证据.
主要方法:
- 利用随机拦截交叉滞后面板模型 (RI-CLPM) 来分析2010年至2019年间来自11个州的县级数据.
- 在RI-CLPM中,隐藏携带许可证和谋杀率之间随着时间的推移产生了相互影响.
- 该模型对数据中未观察到的异质性和时间依赖性进行控制.
主要成果:
- 2010-2017年间颁发的CCW许可证数量的增加在统计学上与2011-2018年枪支杀人总数的随后增加有关.
- 有限的证据表明,枪支杀人率的增加与早期研究期间 (2010-2011) CCW许可证发放的随后变化有关.
- 这些发现表明,与合法携带枪支的扩大相关的潜在急性安全风险.
结论:
- 隐藏携带许可证的扩大与枪支谋杀率的增加有关,这挑战了更广泛的枪支可用性提高公共安全的观念.
- 强调对负责任的枪支所有权实践的关键需求.
- 强调实施预防性法律的重要性,以限制暴力历史和高风险地点的个人使用枪支.
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