国际贸易的动态:对主要出口国家的30年分析
1Faculty of International Business Management, Beppu University, Beppu, Oita, Japan.
PloS one
|August 1, 2023
概括
全球贸易网络变得更加互惠,中国成为新的中心,从美国转移. 这种演变会影响国际经济关系和政策,尤其是在全球事件发生后.
科学领域:
- 国际贸易分析 国际贸易分析
- 网络科学 网络科学
- 经济地理 经济地理
背景情况:
- 对国际贸易网络的分析对于理解全球经济动态至关重要.
- 1992-2020年期间,全球贸易模式发生了重大变化.
- 美国,中国,印度,日本和韩国等主要出口国形成了一个关键的焦点.
研究的目的:
- 分析1992年至2020年国际贸易网络的演变.
- 检查主要出口国家的网络中心性和互惠性的转变.
- 评估全球事件对贸易网络结构和国际经济关系的影响.
主要方法:
- 对贸易数据进行时间序列分析,以量化网络互惠.
- 商业网络的可视化,箭头尺寸与贸易价值成比例.
- 一种新的集群分析方法,使用80维向量表示和树状图.
主要成果:
- 国际贸易网络在大多数产品类别中变得更加互惠.
- 网络的中心性已经从美国转移到中国的大部分商品,不包括消费品和原材料.
- 全球事件,如9/11袭击,对贸易网络结构产生了重大影响.
结论:
- 贸易网络的发展需要对经济稳定和国际关系进行政策调整.
- 由于网络中心的转变,重新调整贸易战略至关重要.
- 制定弹性政策对于减轻全球事件对贸易的影响至关重要.
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