估计撒哈拉以南非洲大米谷中的营养度和摄取量,使用线性混合效应回归
Tovohery Rakotoson1,2, Kalimuthu Senthilkumar2, Jean-Martial Johnson3,4
1Laboratoire des RadioIsotopes (LRI), Université d'Antananarivo, BP 3383, Route d'Andraisoro, 101, Antananarivo, Madagascar.
概括
使用农业生态因素估计撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 米营养度是可行的,但只有 (B) 吸收预测比区域平均值显著改善. 其他营养摄入量最好用平均区域度来估计.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 土壤科学 土壤科学
- 植物营养 植物营养
背景情况:
- 准确量化大米谷中的营养度对于撒哈拉以南非洲 (SSA) 的肥料建议至关重要.
- 在南非,农民往往缺乏用于植物分析的实验室设施.
- 开发营养度的预测模型对于提高营养使用效率至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估大米谷中的宏观 (N,P,K,Ca,Mg,S) 和微量营养素 (Fe,Mn,B,Cu) 是否可以通过农业生态区 (AEZ),生产系统,土壤特性和肥料应用率来估计.
- 为了确定模型估计的营养摄入量是否会提高预测准确性,而不是SSA中基于平均摄入量的平均摄入量.
主要方法:
- 采用了998个农民农场的横截面数据,这些数据来自SSA的20个国家,包括4个AEZ和3个生产系统.
- 采用线性混合效应回归模型来测试营养度和预测变量之间的关系.
- 将实际的营养摄入量与模型估计和基于平均摄入量的比较.
主要成果:
- 所有10种营养素都显示出合理的预测,其建模效率从0.178 (Ca) 到0.584 (B) 之间.
- 只有 (K) 和 (B) 度有令人满意的估计 (建模效率>0.5).
- 模型估计的营养摄入量与实际摄入量比基于平均摄入量有更大的积极关系,仅对 (B) 有显著改善.
结论:
- 在米粒中估计的宏观营养素和微量营养素摄入量可以通过SSA的区域平均度进行近似估计,除了 (B).
- (B) 吸收预测显示了模型的高效率和与基于平均值的估计相比的显著改善.
- 需要对肥料时间,干旱和二氧化碳等因素进行进一步的研究,以提高预测准确度.
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