预测波动了每日COVID-19死亡人数系列,采用细分Poisson模型和ARIMA模型的新组合
1Pan-Asia Business School, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming, People's Republic of China.
Journal of applied statistics
|August 2, 2023
概括
本研究引入了一种新的细分Poisson和自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型组合,以准确预测传染病数据,尊重其计数性质和复杂模式,以便更好地分析COVID-19爆发.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 自主回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型对于传染病预测是常见的.
- 标准ARIMA模型无法计算流行病数据的计数性质和偏差分布,例如每日COVID-19死亡人数.
- 疾病数据中的波动模式和转折点通常受到公共卫生干预的影响.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种新的建模方法,解决传染病计数数据的传统ARIMA模型的局限性.
- 开发一个双阶段模型,将分段Poisson和ARIMA组件结合起来.
- 准确预测和建模加拿大和美国的每日COVID-19死亡人数.
主要方法:
- 一个两阶段的建模过程,将一个细分的Poisson模型与ARIMA集成.
- 第一个阶段涉及对时间序列数据的概括趋势分析.
- 适用于加拿大和美国的每日COVID-19死亡人数数据.
主要成果:
- 拟议的模型有效地处理了COVID-19死亡数据的扭曲,基于计数的性质.
- 该模型捕捉了干预影响的波动模式和转折点.
- 对加拿大和美国的每日COVID-19死亡情况进行了准确的预测和建模.
结论:
- 新的Poisson-ARIMA细分模型为模拟和预测传染病爆发提供了一种卓越的方法.
- 这种方法尊重计数数据和复杂的时间动态的固有特征.
- 这种方法为公共卫生监测和对流行病的应对计划提供了有价值的工具.
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
152
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
152
Poisson Probability Distribution
8.3K
A Poisson probability distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It gives the probability of a number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space if these events happen at a known average rate and independently of the time since the last event. For example, a book editor might be interested in the number of words spelled incorrectly in a particular book. It might be that, on average, there are five words spelled incorrectly in 100 pages. The interval is 100 pages.
The...
The...
8.3K
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
476
Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
476
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
412
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
412
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
7.4K
The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
7.4K
Pie Chart
14.2K
A pie chart (or a pie graph) is a circular graphical chart or a pictorial representation of categorical data. It is divided into slices of pie each indicating numerical proportions. It is also used to show the relative sizes of data in a single chart.
In a pie chart, the central angle, the arc length of each slice, and the area are directly proportional to the quantity or percentage it represents. Some real-world examples that can be depicted using pie charts include marks obtained by students...
In a pie chart, the central angle, the arc length of each slice, and the area are directly proportional to the quantity or percentage it represents. Some real-world examples that can be depicted using pie charts include marks obtained by students...
14.2K


