解决人口增长的随机动态
Loïc Marrec1,2, Claudia Bank1,2, Thibault Bertrand3
1Institut für Ökologie und Evolution Universität Bern Bern Switzerland.
Ecology and evolution
|August 2, 2023
概括
确定性模型往往无法预测平均人口增长,特别是在小人群中. 我们的新随机模型准确地捕捉了人口动态和固定概率,改进了生态和进化建模.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
背景情况:
- 人口增长动态在生态学和进化中至关重要.
- 确定性运动模型通常用于描述人口规模变化.
- 在传统模型中,人口动态中的随机性经常被忽视.
研究的目的:
- 将决定性预测与模拟的随机人口增长进行比较.
- 确定确定性和随机模型之间的差异的原因.
- 为人口动态开发一种普遍适用的随机模型.
主要方法:
- 模拟各种人口增长模型.
- 在多个随机实现中分析平均人口大小.
- 对随机人口增长动态的精确解决方案的推导.
- 应用时刻接近的近似方法.
主要成果:
- 确定性模型始终高估了种群大小,特别是在最初的小种群中.
- 这种差异源于未关闭时刻的动态和忽视出生时间的变化.
- 时刻关闭近似提供了部分改进,但是特定于模型的,并不完全令人满意.
- 衍生的随机解决方案准确地模拟了社区动态,并预测了固定概率.
结论:
- 确定性模型不足以准确预测平均随机人口动态.
- 一个新的,准确的随机解决方案提供了更准确的代表人口增长.
- 这项工作使得在生态和进化研究中更准确地分析实验数据和参数推断.
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