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通过潜在的传染病来确定传染病检测的速度

Satyaki Roy¹, Preetom Biswas², Preetam Ghosh³

¹Bioinformatics & Computational Science, Frederick National Laboratory for Cancer Research, Frederick, MD, United States of America.

PLOS global public health

|August 2, 2023

概括

我们为地理区域引入传染潜力 (CP),以追踪COVID-19的传播. 这一指标有助于估计感染和指导测试策略,对于管理不断变化的病毒菌株和疫苗接种工作至关重要.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
传染病建模传染病建模
公共卫生公共卫生

背景情况:

由于新株和无症状携带者,COVID-19的流行病学统计不足.
传染潜力 (CP) 之前是为个人定义的;其区域应用尚未被探索.
有效的控制需要了解疫苗接种和测试影响的传播动态.

研究的目的:

将传染潜力 (CP) 的概念扩展到地理区域一级.
开发和验证用于估计区域CP的时空模型.
评估CP在为COVID-19提供公共卫生干预信息方面的实用性.

主要方法:

开发了一个时空模型,包括社会混合和SIR流行病优化.
在各种条件下估计的区域CP:新菌株,再感染和超级传播事件.
使用来自意大利,德国和纽约市的真实世界COVID-19感染数据验证了该模型.

主要成果:

区域CP有效地估计了未经测试和无症状感染的数量.
CP分析提供了制传染的最佳检测率.
模拟显示了CP能够跟踪受流动性和政策影响的传染性概况演变的能力.

结论:

区域传染潜力 (CP) 是评估和管理COVID-19传播的一个有价值的指标.
CP有助于了解无症状传播的影响,并指导有针对性的干预措施.
该模型提供了对实际世界流行病应对至关重要的动态感染概况的见解.

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