在CMIP6模型中,印度地区热点的夏季人类热不适条件得到了信息
Krishna Kumar Shukla1, Raju Attada2
1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Mohali, SAS Nagar, Manauli, Sector 81, Knowledge city, 140306, Punjab, India.
Scientific reports
|August 2, 2023
概括
气候变化正在增加夏季极端炎热. 本研究使用CMIP6模型显示印度西北部热应力增加,预测高排放场景下致命的热量水平.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 人类健康 人类健康 人类健康
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加夏季极端热应激的频率和强度.
- 西北印度 (NWI) 被确定为热应激的区域热点.
- 准确的气候建模对于理解和预测未来的热量影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过CMIP6模型分析印度西北部普遍热气候指数 (UTCI) 的气候学和趋势.
- 为了比较CMIP6模型预测与ERA5历史热应力再分析数据.
- 在各种气候变化场景下预测未来的热不适条件 (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5).
主要方法:
- 利用偏差调整的CMIP6模型用于夏季UTCI数据 (1979-2010).
- 调整了CMIP6数据以与ERA5-HEAT空间分辨率 (0.25° × 0.25°) 相匹配,使用双线插值.
- 使用的模式相关系数 (>0.9) 来推导CMIP6多模型组合 (MME) 平均UTI用于分析.
主要成果:
- CMIP6 MME UTCI显示了NWI中显著的热应力,与ERA5数据一致.
- 无论是ERA5还是CMIP6 MME都表明NWI的热应力条件的上升趋势.
- 未来的预测显示,越来越多的热不适,NWI可能在SSP5-8.5.5下达到致命的热应激水平.
结论:
- 印度西北地区正在经历夏季显著且日益增加的热压力.
- 气候变化预测表明极端炎热天数的增加令人担忧,特别是在北北伊.
- 迫切需要采取气候行动,以减轻热应激对人类福祉和社会经济部门的严重影响.
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