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年间气候变异性改善了对外热,而不是内热物种的利基估计

Dirk Nikolaus Karger¹, Bianca Saladin², Rafael O Wüest²

¹Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903, Birmensdorf, Switzerland. dirk.karger@wsl.ch.

Scientific reports

|August 2, 2023

概括

气候变化显著改善了物种分布模型 (SDM),特别是对于两动物和爬行动物等外热物种. 考虑到时间气候变化对于准确估计这些动物的利基至关重要.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候变化生物学气候变化生物学
生物地理学生物地理学

背景情况:

气候是限制物种生态的一个关键因素.
物种分布模型 (SDM) 经常使用长期气候手段,可能错过了关键的气候变化.
物种生理学影响它们对气候变化的反应,外热生物比内热生物更敏感.

研究的目的:

调查空间和时间气候变化如何影响全球生态热和生态热物种的利基估计.
量化将气候变化纳入物种分布模型 (SDM) 的影响.
为了比较使用气候手段的SDM的预测能力与包括空间和时间变化在内的 SDM的预测能力.

主要方法:

使用了三种不同的物种分布建模 (SDM) 算法.
采用了730种两动物,1276种爬行动物和1961种哺乳动物的全球范围地图.
纳入了从1979年到2013年的气候数据,分析了空间和时间温度和降水变化.
使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和真实技能统计 (TSS) 进行绩效评估,对所有SDM进行了交叉验证.

主要成果:

与仅使用气候指标 (TSS=0.71,AUC=0.90) 的SDM相比,包含空间变异性的SDM表现更好 (TSS=0.74,AUC=0.92).
包括时间变化在内的SDM显示了进一步的性能增长 (TSS=0.80,AUC=0.94).
当包括空间和时间气候变化时,预测准确度最高.
考虑到时间变化,对外热两动物和爬行动物的SDM预测得到了显著的增强,但对内热哺乳动物则没有.

结论:

在利基估计中包括跨年气候变化对于外热物种最为关键,因为它们直接依赖环境.
空间和时间气候变异性为SDM准确性提供了显著的改进,而不是仅依赖气候平均值的模型.
这些发现强调了考虑不同气候指标的重要性,超出了长期平均值,以进行强大的生态建模,特别是对于生态热植物.

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