削减上限政策对电力系统脱碳的意想不到的影响
Yongbin Ding1, Mingquan Li1,2, Ahmed Abdulla3
1School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China.
iScience
|August 3, 2023
概括
电力系统的削减上限阻碍了脱碳目标. 这种政策增加了成本和二氧化碳排放,同时减少了可再生能源的容量,并危及了电网的可靠性.
科学领域:
- 电力系统工程 电力系统工程
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 各国正在减碳电力系统,以应对气候变化.
- 严格的整合目标,如缩减上限,在一些地区实施,如中国.
- 这些限制上限对电力系统脱碳的影响仍未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 评估削减上限对省级电力系统脱碳的影响.
- 分析这些上限对可再生能源整合,电网可靠性和经济成本的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用容量扩展模型来模拟省级电力系统.
- 评估了不同限制上限水平对系统配置和运行的影响.
- 可再生能源容量,储能容量,发电组合和排放量的量化变化.
主要成果:
- 限制上限显著增加了所需的储能容量 (+43%,5%上限),同时减少了可再生能源容量 (-17%).
- 尽管存储量增加,但电力系统的可靠性受到损害,导致更频繁的过量和不足发电事件.
- 水力发电被抑制,储能利用率下降,化石燃料使用量在限制上限下增加.
- 实施5%的减排上限会导致经济成本增加6%,二氧化碳排放增加7%.
结论:
- 限制上限具有不利影响,与其旨在促进可再生能源整合的目的相矛盾.
- 这些政策可能无意中增加成本和排放,并降低整体系统的效率和可靠性.
- 应考虑替代策略来实现电力系统脱碳,这些策略不依赖于严格的减排限制.
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