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土地利用变化对奥地利生态系统服务的过去和未来影响
Uta Schirpke1, Erich Tasser2, Stefan Borsky3
1Department of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestraße 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria; Institute for Alpine Environment, Eurac Research, Viale Druso 1, 39100, Bozen/Bolzano, Italy.
Journal of environmental management
|August 3, 2023
概括
社会经济因素推动了奥地利的土地利用变化,影响了生态系统服务. 未来的气候变化可能成为主要的驱动因素,需要综合土地利用规划以实现可持续性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会经济学 社会经济学
- 生态系统服务生态系统服务
背景情况:
- 由环境和社会经济因素驱动的土地利用变化对人类福祉和生态系统服务产生重大影响.
- 了解驱动因素,土地利用和生态系统服务之间的复杂相互作用对于有效的环境管理至关重要.
- 审查长期土地使用动态及其后果的国家一级研究很少.
研究的目的:
- 从1950年到2100年,确定奥地利土地利用变化的主要驱动因素.
- 分析过去和预计未来的土地利用变化及其对生态系统服务的影响.
- 讨论潜在的管理反应,以减轻负面影响,并适应未来的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用基于奥地利气候变化小组 (APCC) 特别报告的驱动器压力状态影响响应 (DPSIR) 框架.
- 分析了历史的土地使用数据,并预测了未来的场景.
- 评估对各种生态系统服务的影响,区分低地和山区.
主要成果:
- 社会经济驱动因素,包括经济增长和技术进步,是过去土地利用变化的主要影响因素.
- 农业强化和城市扩张导致低地生态系统服务减少;草原放弃转移了山区的服务.
- 预计到本世纪末,气候变化将成为比社会经济因素更重要的驱动因素,特别是在农业地区.
结论:
- 综合土地利用规划对于在环境和社会经济不确定性中保护生态系统服务至关重要.
- 未来的土地利用管理选择可能会受到加快气候变化影响的限制.
- 政策应优先考虑考虑到长期环境和社会趋势的适应性战略.
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