获得全球小麦储备的机会决定了国家对冲突引起的乌克兰小麦供应中断的脆弱性
Leonardo Bertassello1, Paul Winters2, Marc F Müller3,4
1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Nature food
|August 3, 2023
概括
俄罗斯 - 乌克兰冲突严重影响了全球小麦供应,导致脆弱国家超过70%的进口损失. 政策干预对于应对不断升级的粮食安全危机至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 全球粮食安全 全球粮食安全
- 国际贸易 国际贸易 国际贸易
背景情况:
- 俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突严重破坏了全球小麦供应.
- 小麦是一种至关重要的主食,其供应链对全球粮食安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析乌克兰小麦出口减少对全球粮食安全的影响.
- 确定最容易受到这些出口中断影响的国家.
- 探索减轻粮食危机的政策措施.
主要方法:
- 对小麦出口数据的定量分析.
- 对脆弱国家的进口依赖程度的评估.
- 经济建模以了解差异性影响.
主要成果:
- 在2022年,乌克兰小麦出口下降了39%.
- 在高度脆弱的国家观察到超过70%的进口损失.
- 埃及,阿曼,沙特阿拉伯,利比亚,毛里塔尼亚,也门和黎巴嫩经历了相当大的影响.
结论:
- 俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突加剧了全球粮食不安全,对依赖进口的国家产生了不成比例的影响.
- 资本和国际贸易的获取影响着一个国家对粮食供应冲击的抵御力.
- 迫切需要政策干预,以防止粮食危机蔓延.
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