西班牙市政府的公共债务:驱动因素和政策建议
Mihaela Simionescu1, Javier Cifuentes-Faura2
1Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Romanian Academy, Bucuresti, Romania.
Evaluation review
|August 4, 2023
概括
西班牙的市政债务由于COVID-19而增加. 促进经济增长和创造就业机会,特别是对年轻人来说,是减少这种公共债务的关键.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 公共财政是公共财政.
- 地区研究 地区研究
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19大流行,西班牙市政当局的地方债务恶化,影响了国家和欧元区的金融稳定.
- 了解不同市政规模的人均公共债务的驱动因素对于有效的政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定西班牙市政府人均公共债务的决定因素,分为四个大小组.
- 分析经济,人口和政治因素与市政债务之间的因果关系.
主要方法:
- 使用面板定量回归 (MMQR) 和平均组 (ME) 估计器进行定量分析.
- 在小组数据 (2011-2020) 中应用Juodis测试进行因果关系分析.
- 包括经济 (人均GDP,失业率),人口 (年龄结构) 和政治 (政党,意识形态,力量) 变量.
主要成果:
- 短期经济增长被确定为大多数市政团体中减少地方债务的共同因素.
- 对于影响债务水平的因素,集群之间观察到差异.
- 经济增长和失业对大多数群体的公共债务产生重大影响,政治政党是5,001至20,000居民的市政当局的关键因素.
结论:
- 经验发现为旨在减轻西班牙市政当局地方债务的政策建议提供了基础.
- 政策倡议应优先考虑促进经济增长和就业,特别是在年轻人群中.
- 考虑到不同城市规模的债务驱动因素的不同,可能需要量身定制的策略.
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