在使用SimSmoke模型访问尼古丁vaping产品之前和之后,加拿大吸烟率的比较
David T Levy1, Christopher J Cadham2, Zhe Yuan3
1Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. DL777@georgetown.edu.
概括
尼古丁电子烟产品 (NVP) 并没有减缓加拿大的吸烟率下降,特别是在年轻人中. 它们的可用性有助于减少大约10万例吸烟导致的死亡.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 控制烟草的控制方式
背景情况:
- 尼古丁电子烟产品 (NVP) 由于NVP和香烟使用之间的过渡,造成了复杂的公共卫生挑战.
- 由于数据限制和参数不稳定性,很难建模这些过渡.
研究的目的:
- 间接估计NVP对加拿大的吸烟流行率和吸烟导致的死亡的影响.
- 要利用SimSmoke模拟模型进行此估计.
主要方法:
- 从1999-2012年校准的加拿大SimSmoke模型与特定年龄和性别的加拿大数据一起使用.
- 通过将预计的吸烟趋势 (没有NVP) 与2012-2020年实际调查数据进行比较,推断出NVP的影响.
- 在2018年NVP监管之前和之后的影响被区分开来.
主要成果:
- 两项调查表明,与NVP相关的吸烟减少显著,特别是在年轻年龄组 (15-24岁或18-24岁) 中.
- 在加拿大放宽NVP限制后,减少更为明显.
- 据估计,由于NVP相关的吸烟减少,从2012年到2060年避免了10万例吸烟导致的死亡.
结论:
- 吸烟率,特别是在年轻的加拿大人中,随着NVP可用性增加,吸烟率下降得更快.
- 然而,NVP的出现并没有阻碍吸烟的总体下降.
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