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在共享的社会经济路径中,西藏高原的变暖和湿将继续
Hao Deng1, Zhenming Ji1,2,3
1School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, 519082, China.
PloS one
|August 4, 2023
概括
西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,到2100年,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,到2100年,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,到2100年西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,到2100年西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,到2100年西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,西藏高原的气候变化预测显示,到2100年西藏高原的气候变化预测显示. 区域气候模型捕捉了地形效应,预计平均升温为3°C (SSP245) 到7°C (SSP585).
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 西藏高原 (TP) 是气候研究的关键地区.
- 了解未来的气候变化对TP的理解对于环境管理和政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 用区域气候模型对西藏高原进行21世纪气候变化的预测.
- 分析不同气候场景下的2米气温和总降水量的预测变化.
主要方法:
- 利用来自合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型的偏差纠正数据.
- 使用天气研究和预测 (WRF) 模型,一个区域气候模型,来模拟气候预测.
- 分析了2米空气温度和总降水量的变化.
主要成果:
- 预计整个TP地区将出现显著的变暖,到2100年平均变暖为3°C (SSP245) 和7°C (SSP585).
- 西部TP预计将经历更大的变暖,在SSP585情景中超过10°C.
- 大多数地区的降水量增加 (SSP245的90毫米,SSP585的200毫米),尽管东南部低海拔地区在SSP585.5中可能会减少冬季降水量.
- 预计到2100年,年平均降水量将达到大约600毫米.
- 无线电WRF模拟有效地捕捉了地形效应,优于低分辨率模型.
结论:
- 到21世纪末,西藏高原将经历大量的变暖和降雨模式的改变.
- 东亚夏季季风和西方干扰是预计降水增加的关键驱动因素.
- 区域气候建模为当地气候变化对TP的影响提供了关键的见解.
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