离散和连续的年龄结构人口模型的静止状态
Arni S R Srinivasa Rao1, James R Carey2
1Laboratory for Theory and Mathematical Modeling, Division of Infectious Diseases-Department of Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta, GA 30912, USA; Department of Mathematics, Augusta University, Georgia, GA 30912, USA.
Mathematical biosciences
|August 4, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了基于分区定理的方法来评估人口静止,比传统的净生殖率 (NRR) 提供更及时的见解. 这一新指标更好地捕捉了接近稳定国家的人口年龄结构动态.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 人口动态 人口动态
背景情况:
- 了解人类人口静止是一个长期以来的科学兴趣,净生殖率 (NRR) 被广泛用作关键指标.
- 该NRR被纳入全球发展目标,突出其在评估人口状况方面的重要性.
- 当前的人口统计指标可能缺乏快速变化的全球人口趋势所需的及时性.
研究的目的:
- 挑战NRR在确定人口静止性的及时性和有效性.
- 提出和验证基于分割定理的方法作为评估人口静止性的优越方法.
- 引入新的人口统计指标来描述全球人口趋向于替代水平生育.
主要方法:
- 开发和证明与离散和连续年龄分布相关的定理.
- 从分区定理中推导可测量的功能性质.
- 应用分区度量来分析接近静止的群体中的年龄结构动态.
主要成果:
- 与NRR相比,基于分割定理的方法提供了比NRR更最新和更及时的人口静止度.
- 分区度量有效地捕捉了在静止或接近静止的人口的潜在年龄结构动态.
- 该研究表明,对于人口增长率趋向于替代水平的国家,NRR的局限性.
结论:
- 基于分割定理的方法提供了更准确和及时的评估人口静止.
- 随着全球人口增长率的下降,新的人口概念和指标是必不可少的.
- 拟议的分区指标对于理解新出现的全球人口变化至关重要.
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