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气候变化对依赖地下水排放的河流流量产生影响,在阿尔卑斯山山脉的山头流域
Landon J S Halloran1, Jeremy Millwater2, Daniel Hunkeler1
1Centre d'hydrogéologie et de géothermie (CHYN), Université de Neuchâtel, rue Émile-Argand 11, 2000 Neuchâtel, Switzerland.
The Science of the total environment
|August 4, 2023
概括
气候变化将使阿尔卑斯山地下水排放量大幅减少35%,增加溪流无流期. 这影响了阿尔卑斯山的水资源,突出了地下水.
科学领域:
- 水文学和水文地质学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 阿尔卑斯山的水资源对气候变化影响非常敏感.
- 了解阿尔卑斯山流域未来的地下水动态对于水资源管理至关重要.
- 以前的研究还没有完全量化气候变化对阿尔卑斯山地下水排放的影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化的影响,地下水排放在nival-regime阿尔卑斯山山脉山头水流域.
- 量化河流流动力学的变化,包括由于地下水制度的改变而导致的无流期.
- 评估地下水对气候变化引起的雪地覆盖损失的缓冲能力.
主要方法:
- 开发并将基于地质物理的地下水模型与净充电模型结合起来.
- 对流域出口的流量分析,以确定年度动态的变化.
- 模拟气候变化影响使用十个代表性度途径 (RCP) 8.5 气候模型用于未来时期 (2080-2100 vs 2020-2040).
主要成果:
- 预计到本世纪末平均地下水排放量将减少35%.
- 流没有流的时间从大约0%增加到4.3%.
- 每月平均排放最大值 (~1个月前) 和最小值 (~5个月前) 的时间发生显著变化.
结论:
- 地下水在维持高山溪流方面发挥着至关重要的作用,但其缓冲能力有局限性.
- 由于地下水排放减少,多年恒久的高山溪流可能在本世纪末变得间歇性.
- 对地下水作用的定量理解对于适应气候变化的阿尔卑斯山水资源管理至关重要.
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