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死亡率函数引起的不确定性对未来热带气旋风险评估的影响
Rumei Tang1, Jidong Wu2, Wei Ding1
1State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
The Science of the total environment
|August 5, 2023
概括
中国未来的热带气旋 (TC) 风险取决于气候模型和死亡率函数. 了解这些不确定性对于准确的灾难准备和影响评估至关重要.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 灾害风险评估 灾害风险评估
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 热带气旋 (TCs) 构成重大威胁,特别是在气候变暖的情况下.
- 未来的TC风险评估依赖于气候模型预测和影响函数.
- 与TC特征相比,TC冲击功能的不确定性往往被忽视.
研究的目的:
- 调查TC死亡风险评估中的不确定性,原因是地理和类别依赖的死亡功能.
- 分析中国各省目前和未来气候条件之间的年平均死亡人数差异.
主要方法:
- 利用来自四个气候模型的合成TC.
- 从事的死亡率函数从三个历史TC灾难数据集进行参数化.
- 专注于中国省份,记录了TC死亡人数.
主要成果:
- 气候模型影响TC频率,风,降雨和暴露变化跨省.
- 省级年平均死亡率的变化取决于气候模型和死亡率函数.
- 气候模型主要决定空间风险模式,而死亡函数调节风险变化方向和幅度.
结论:
- 宿命函数对于检测气候变化下的未来TC风险至关重要.
- 未来的TC影响研究应该考虑到异质的气候条件和地理位置.
- 这项研究强调了在气候变化适应战略中考虑影响函数不确定性的重要性.
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