波形门式多元化仪用于地下水时间序列预测
Vitor Hugo Serravalle Reis Rodrigues1, Paulo Roberto de Melo Barros Junior2, Euler Bentes Dos Santos Marinho3
1Geological Survey of Brazil - SGB, Avenida Ulysses Guimarães, 2862 Centro Administrativo da Bahia, Salvador, BA, 1649-026, Brazil.
Scientific reports
|August 5, 2023
概括
准确的地下水预测对于水资源管理至关重要. 新的波形门式多变压器模型通过结合变压器和波形交叉变压器的优势显著改善了预测,减少了31.26%的错误.
科学领域:
- 水文地质学 水文地质学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
背景情况:
- 准确地预测地下水位对于可持续的水资源管理至关重要.
- 深度学习模型,特别是变压器,对多变量时间序列预测有希望,但需要适应水文数据.
- 现有的模型往往缺乏捕捉水文系统固有的复杂周期性模式的能力.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估一个新的深度学习模型,波纹门式多变压器,用于增强地下水位预测.
- 将波纹分析与变压器架构集成,以改进时间序列预测.
- 用现实水文数据对现有方法进行模型性能评估.
主要方法:
- 提出了波段门式多变压器,将一个香草变压器与一个波段交叉变压器集成在一起,使用内部波段交叉关联块.
- 采用了多头编码器与混合门,结合了变压器的自我注意力和波纹交叉变压器的周期性检测.
- 采用多分离式定向交叉相关热图 (MF-DCCHM) 与多贝奇波段用于信号无声化和趋势提取.
主要成果:
- 波形门式多变压器展示了卓越的预测能力,与领先的变压器类型模型相比,平均绝对误差降低了31.26%.
- 该模型有效地捕获了地下水数据中复杂的时间依赖性和周期性模式.
- 在MF-DCCHM分析中,成功地确定了监测站之间的多分形交叉相关性和周期性趋势.
结论:
- 波形门式多变压器在地下水预测准确度方面取得了重大进展.
- 将波形分析与变压器架构相结合是水文时间序列建模的一个有希望的方法.
- 开发的方法提供了一个强大的工具,用于管理重要的含水层资源.
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