2014年至2020年伊朗冲突率的趋势:2014年至2020年伊朗冲突率的趋势:一项生态研究
Elaheh Talebi-Ghane1, Salman Khazaei2, Fatemeh Hadavand Siri3
1Modeling of Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran.
Archives of Iranian medicine
|August 6, 2023
概括
近年来,伊朗的冲突率呈现出日益增长的趋势,各省之间存在很大差异. 这凸显了有针对性的公共卫生干预措施的必要性,以解决日益严重的问题及其对健康的影响.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
背景情况:
- 了解省级冲突率趋势对于卫生政策制定者来说至关重要,以确定根本原因.
- 冲突对心理,社会和健康都有重大影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估伊朗31个省份冲突率的时间趋势.
- 使用增长混合模型 (GMM) 识别冲突趋势的独特模式.
主要方法:
- 一项生态研究利用了2014年至2020年伊朗法律医学组织 (ILMO) 的数据.
- 线性混合效应模型分析了性别和整体冲突率趋势.
- 增长混合模型 (GMM) 确定了具有类似冲突轨迹的省级集群.
主要成果:
- 阿尔德比尔和西斯坦巴鲁吉斯坦省分别呈现了最高和最低的7年冲突发生率.
- 伊朗的冲突率从2014年至2017年每年下降0.37%,然后在2017年后略有增加0.07%.
- 在过去七年的时间里,GMM揭示了伊朗各省之间四种不同的冲突趋势.
结论:
- 该研究表明,近年来,伊朗大多数省份的冲突率呈上升趋势.
- 紧急干预是必要的,以减轻日益增长的冲突率及其对健康和社会的不利影响.
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