投注澳大利亚足球规则:专家提示者可以击败随机吗?
Ben J Riley1, Lee Li2, David Plevin3
1College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, South, Australia. ben.riley@sa.gov.au.
Journal of gambling studies
|August 6, 2023
概括
专家澳大利亚足球联盟 (AFL) 提示者正确预测更多的比赛结果,而不是随机机会,但这种技能并不转化为AFL投注的货币收益. 投注经验并没有随着时间的推移提高预测准确度.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 博研究研究 博研究
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 澳大利亚足球联盟 (AFL) 是澳大利亚最受欢迎的体育运动,主导体育投注.
- 博广告,包括评论员提示,在AFL广播中很普遍.
- 技能在预测AFL比赛和投注结果方面的有效性仍未得到研究.
研究的目的:
- 实证测试专家AFL提示者在预测比赛结果时是否胜过随机选择.
- 为了确定专家提示者是否比随机选择获得更大的金钱奖励.
- 为专家提示者调查预测准确度是否会随着投注经验的提高而提高.
主要方法:
- 六个AFL赛季的回顾性分析,包括1141场比赛,赔率数据和专家提示者数据.
- 专家预测与通过随机数发生器生成的随机选择进行比较.
- 应用混合效应建模来分析预测准确性和货币结果,模拟每场比赛2美元的注.
主要成果:
- 专家在预测正确的AFL比赛结果方面显著优于随机选择.
- 主场比赛的选择部分介绍了专家预测准确度的提高.
- 在专家提示者和随机选择之间没有发现货币结果的显著差异.
- 专家提示者的预测准确度没有显示出与观察到的投注体验相比的改善.
结论:
- 在AFL预测方面的专业知识不能保证投注的利能力,挑战了在AFL投注中的技能概念.
- 调查结果可以为心理干预提供信息,解决徒对控制的错觉.
- 结果提供了关于与体育博相关的博危害预防的公共卫生信息的证据.
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