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Ben J Riley1, Lee Li2, David Plevin3

  • 1College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University, South, Australia. ben.riley@sa.gov.au.

PubMed
概括

专家澳大利亚足球联盟 (AFL) 提示者正确预测更多的比赛结果,而不是随机机会,但这种技能并不转化为AFL投注的货币收益. 投注经验并没有随着时间的推移提高预测准确度.

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Unusual Results

Unusual results are those that have a very low chance of occurring. Unusual results can be identified using probabilities and the range rule of thumb. In problems involving probability, unusual results can be observed in 2 instances – an unusually high number of successes or an unusually low number of successes.
According to the range rule of thumb, any value above or below two standard deviations, 2σ  from the mean, μ  is considered unusual.
Maximum unusual value =...
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Regression Toward the Mean01:52

Regression Toward the Mean

Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
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Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test I01:17

Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test I

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The test works...
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Bias01:22

Bias

Bias refers to any tendency that prevents a question from being considered unprejudiced. In research, bias occurs when one outcome or answer is selected or encouraged over others in sampling or testing. Bias can occur during any research phase, including study design, data collection, analysis, and publication.
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The randomization process involves assigning study participants randomly to experimental or control groups based on their probability of being equally assigned. Randomization is meant to eliminate selection bias and balance known and unknown confounding factors so that the control group is similar to the treatment group as much as possible. A computer program and a random number generator can be used to assign participants to groups in a way that minimizes bias.
Simple randomization
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