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森林火灾与加利福尼亚州的菌菌病发病率之间的关联,2000-2018:合成控制分析分析
Sophie Phillips1, Isabel Jones2, Gail Sondermyer-Cooksey3
1Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California.
Environmental epidemiology (Philadelphia, Pa.)
|August 7, 2023
概括
美国西部的野火正在增加,但在一般人群中与菌菌菌病 (山谷热) 存在有限的关联. 在高传播区域的大火可能构成风险,需要进一步研究.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 菌类学 菌类学是指菌类学.
背景情况:
- 美国西部的野火频率和严重程度正在增加.
- 自2000年以来,菌菌病 (山谷热) 的发病率急剧上升.
- 在一般人群中,野火与菌菌菌菌之间的联系是未知的.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查野火与加利福尼亚州圣若aquin山谷的菌菌病发病率之间的关联.
- 为了确定野火是否有助于山谷热的上升率.
主要方法:
- 分析了圣若金山谷 (San Joaquin Valley) 的19起野火 (2003年至2015年).
- 一种合成控制方法使用了地理位置的监控数据.
- 该研究评估了野火周边20公里内的菌菌病发病率.
主要成果:
- 在野火发生后的12-36个月内,没有发现显著的过多的菌菌病例.
- 在19起野火中,有3起的发生率增加,与人口大和烧毁面积 (>5,000英) 有关.
- 在这三个案例中,也注意到高的火灾前传输率.
结论:
- 有限的证据表明,野火在一般人群中推动了广泛的型菌病的增加.
- 在具有高传播率的特有地区发生的大火可能会增加风险.
- 对Coccidioides spp.进行进一步的研究. 在野火发生前/之后,建议在土壤和空气中使用.
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