登革热具有竞争力的蚊子的替代是强大的近期变化
Váleri N Vásquez1,2, Lara M Kueppers1,3, Gordana Rašić4
1Berkeley, CA USA Energy and Resources Group, University of California.
Nature climate change
|August 7, 2023
概括
用于控制蚊子传播疾病的wMel Wolbachia细菌在短期内仍然有效地对抗气候变化. 然而,由于加速变暖而导致的长期热浪可能会在未来挑战其有效性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 控制载体传播疾病 控制载体传播疾病
- 气候变化影响研究 气候变化影响研究
背景情况:
- 全球气温上升增加了蚊子传播疾病的流行率.
- 沃尔巴基亚细菌是蚊子的一个有前途的生物控制剂.
- 沃尔巴基亚的wMel菌株对热应激敏感,可能会影响其有效性.
研究的目的:
- 评估全球变暖对基于wMel的蚊子生物控制的影响.
- 评估预计热浪对wMel内进和持久性的影响.
- 为了确定这种技术在不同气候变化场景下的稳定性.
主要方法:
- 在澳大利亚的凯恩斯和越南的 Nha Trang 进行模拟生物控制干预.
- 利用结合模型相互比较项目第5期气候预测和历史温度数据.
- 将wMel热敏度的经验数据集成到Aedes aegypti种群动态模型中.
主要成果:
- 凯恩斯需要对超过两周的热浪进行操作适应.
- 预计持续三周或更长时间的热浪可能会在 Nha Trang 消除 wMel.
- wMel菌株显示出对短期气候变化 (2030年代) 的一般稳定性.
结论:
- 基于wMel的蚊子生物控制在很大程度上抵御了在不久的将来预测的气候变化.
- 加快的变暖趋势可能对该技术的长期可行性 (2050年代以后) 构成挑战.
- 运营策略可能需要调整,以减轻热浪对wMel持续性的影响.
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