癌症转变的全球模式:一个建模研究
Fan Yang1, Dianqin Sun1, Chao Ding2
1Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Centre/National Clinical Research Centre for Cancer/Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
全球癌症负担正在转变,非传染性癌症的增加. 这项研究确定了与社会经济因素相关的三种癌症转型模式:不利,中间和有利,指导了有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 在瘤学瘤学.
背景情况:
- 癌症是全球疾病负担的一个重要因素.
- 全球正在从与感染有关的癌症转变为与感染无关的癌症.
- 了解这些转变对于公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 描述全球主要癌症类型负担的变化.
- 为了识别癌症转变的独特全球模式.
- 探索这些模式与社会经济指标之间的联系.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球疾病负担研究 (1990-2019) 对10种常见癌症的数据.
- 采用了两阶段的建模方法:增长混合模型 (GMMs),然后是隐性类分析.
- 克鲁斯卡尔-瓦利斯H试验评估了过渡模式与社会经济因素之间的联系.
主要成果:
- 确定了三种癌症转变模式:不利的,中间的和有利的.
- 肺癌,乳腺癌和结直肠癌的发展轨迹与过渡模式有很强的关联.
- 与较低的社会经济地位相关的不利阶段,显示主要癌症的发病率越来越高.
结论:
- 在全球范围内存在不同的癌症转变模式 (不利,中等,有利).
- 在社会经济上处于不利地位的地区往往表现出不利的过渡模式.
- 针对性干预对于资源有限的环境至关重要,以应对癌症负担的转移.
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