短期热带气旋风险和相应的地球系统模型偏差
Adam H Sobel1,2, Chia-Ying Lee2, Steven G Bowen3
1Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027.
概括
气候模型不准确地预测太平洋变暖趋势. 这可能导致对未来几十年热带气旋和其他气候相关风险的预测不正确.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 目前的气候模型预测,由于温室气体变暖,赤道太平洋地区将转向类似厄尔尼诺现象的状态.
- 然而,过去50年的观测数据表明,趋势是类似于拉尼尼亚现象的状态,与模型预测相矛盾.
- 这种差异表明模型如何模拟赤道太平洋对变暖的反应可能存在不准确性.
研究的目的:
- 要突出气候模型预测与赤道太平洋地区观察到的趋势之间的差异.
- 调查这种差异对未来气候风险预测,特别是热带气旋活动的影响.
- 强调需要改进的气候模型,能够捕捉到更广泛的未来太平洋变暖情景.
主要方法:
- 对赤道太平洋海面温度梯度和沃克循环现有气候模型预测与观测数据之间的差异分析.
- 预测气候影响 (例如热带气旋活动) 与从历史的厄尔尼诺和拉尼诺事件中推断出的潜在影响进行比较.
- 讨论过渡性气候应对对短期气候适应的相关性.
主要成果:
- 气候模型错误地模拟了赤道太平洋对温室气体变暖的反应,预测了类似厄尔尼诺的状态,而不是观察到的类似拉尼娜的趋势.
- 这种建模错误可能导致区域热带气旋活动的预测不准确,可能会高估北太平洋的活动,低估北大西洋的活动.
- 其他与气候有关的风险,如严重的对流风暴和干旱,也可能被错误地预测.
结论:
- 气候系统对温室气体的短暂反应对于短期适应至关重要,尽管模型中的潜在平衡状态准确性.
- 目前的气候模型可能会为未来几十年的区域气候风险提供误导性的预测.
- 迫切需要制定气候预测,涵盖更广泛的潜在未来热带太平洋变暖场景,包括反映最近观察到的趋势.
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