在喜马拉雅香鹿Moschus leucogaster上,未来气候的更明亮的阴影
Kumar P Mainali1,2, Paras Bikram Singh3,4, Michael Evans1,5
1National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, Annapolis, Maryland, USA.
Scientific reports
|August 7, 2023
概括
临灭绝的喜马拉雅香鹿.
科学领域:
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 野生动物生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
背景情况:
- 喜马拉雅鹿 (Moschus leucogaster) 是一个临灭绝的物种,分布不明.
- 从历史上看,与其他Moschus物种的错误识别使分布评估复杂化.
研究的目的:
- 准确估计喜马拉雅鹿的当前和未来分布.
- 确定影响其息地的关键环境因素.
- 评估气候变化对适合息地的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用来自尼泊尔系统调查的高质量发生数据.
- 采用了经过发生数据培训的物种分布模型.
- 纳入气候变化场景来预测未来的分布.
主要成果:
- 最干旱季度的降雨量,温度季节性和年平均温度是主要的分布决定因素.
- 在尼泊尔和中国预测了适合的息地,特别是在安纳普尔纳山和坎彻通加地区之间.
- 预计目前85-89%的合适地点将在气候变化下保持合适,新的地区正在出现.
结论:
- 喜马拉雅香鹿的分布与气候驱动的植被模式密切相关.
- 预计相当大的适合息地将持续和扩大,尼泊尔的保护区内有相当大的保护.
- 随着人口的扩大,保护收益是可能的,但前提是控制过度开发.
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