亚洲人口中小到妊娠年龄的第一季度竞争风险预测模型查绩效的评估
L Nguyen-Hoang1, I Papastefanou2,3, D S Sahota1
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Prince of Wales Hospital, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong SAR.
概括
胎儿医学基金会 (FMF) 模型准确地预测了亚洲怀孕中的小至妊娠年龄 (SGA). 这种第一季度查工具将母性因素与特定测量相结合,以进行可靠的预测.
科学领域:
- 孕产妇与胎儿的医学
- 产前诊断 在产前诊断
- 怀孕的结果 怀孕的结果
背景情况:
- 对于孕期年龄来说小 (SGA) 是不良围产期结果的重要预测因素.
- 准确的第一季度SGA预测可以实现及时干预.
- 胎儿医学基金会 (FMF) 为SGA预测开发了一种竞争风险模型.
研究的目的:
- 为了验证FMF竞争风险模型在亚洲人口中SGA预测的外部适用性.
- 通过使用母体特征,平均动脉压 (MAP),子宫动脉脉动指数 (UtA-PI) 和胎盘生长因子 (PlGF) 来评估模型的性能.
主要方法:
- 一项前性队列研究的二次分析,涉及10,120名单独怀孕的妇女.
- 应用FMF竞争风险模型,包括母性因素,MAP,UtA-PI和PLGF.
- 用歧视和校准指标评估各种SGA定义的预测性能的评估 (例如,<10百分位数,预期SGA).
主要成果:
- 在这个亚洲队列中,FMF模型的预测性能与原始研究的预测性能相当.
- 母亲因子与MAP,UtA-PI和PlGF的组合显示,早产SGA<第10个百分点和<第5个百分点 (AUC 0.765和0.789) 的最佳预测.
- 预产SGA<第10个,<第5个和<第3个百分点的检测率为42.2%,47.3%和48.1%,在10%的错误阳性率下,与令人满意的校准.
结论:
- 对于SGA,FMF第一季度的竞争风险模型在一个大型的,独立的亚洲队列中具有外部有效性.
- 查表现与最初的FMF研究报告的表现相当.
- 这种模型可以作为一种有价值的工具,用于对不同人群的第一季度SGA风险评估.
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