由抗病毒治疗驱动的致命突变发生的进化安全性
Gabriela Lobinska1, Yitzhak Pilpel1, Martin A Nowak2
1Department of Molecular Genetics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Rehovot, Israel.
PLoS biology
|August 8, 2023
概括
像Molnupiravir这样的突变性抗病毒药物可能会引发进化的安全问题. 数学建模表明,Molnupiravir几乎是安全的,但优化治疗和药物设计可以提高病毒进化安全性.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
背景情况:
- 核糖类类似物是关键的抗病毒药物,其中一些在病毒中诱导致命的突变发生.
- 这些药物的突变性潜力引发了人们对病毒进化和产生耐药突变物的担忧.
- 进化安全性被定义为治疗不会增加可行的病毒突变物数量的概率保证.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数学框架来估计病毒突变负载,并没有转基因治疗.
- 评估Molnupiravir的进化安全性,这是FDA批准的COVID-19治疗方法.
- 确定影响病毒突变出现率的因素,并提出改善进化安全的策略.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个数学框架来估计总突变负载.
- 根据治疗时间和患者的免疫能力,对突变的出现率进行了预测.
- 该框架应用于Molnupiravir,使用关于病毒基因组脆弱性和突变活性的现实假设.
主要成果:
- 根据目前的参数估计,molnupiravir估计是狭窄的进化安全.
- 治疗时间和患者的免疫能力显著影响突变的出现率.
- 将Molnupiravir的使用限制在免疫清除率较低的个体上可以提高进化安全性.
结论:
- 莫尔努皮拉维尔的进化安全性是边际的,强调需要仔细考虑其使用的必要性.
- 未来的抗病毒药物开发应该旨在更大程度上提高突变率,以确保进化安全.
- 一个数学规则被推导出,用于指导治疗的设计,以提高各种病原体的进化安全.
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