关闭柱骨骨折中手术部位感染的风险因素和诺莫格拉姆预测模型
Chenrong Ke1, Xiaoyu Dong1,2, Guangheng Xiang1
1Department of Orthopaedic, The Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Wenzhou, 325035, Zhejiang, China.
Journal of orthopaedic surgery and research
|August 8, 2023
概括
这项研究确定了闭塞柱骨折中手术部位感染 (SSI) 的关键风险因素. 一个新的诺莫格拉姆模型准确地预测了这些患者的SSI风险.
科学领域:
- 整形外科手术 整形外科手术
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
- 预测建模预测建模
背景情况:
- 手术部位感染 (SSI) 是闭塞柱骨折手术后的一个重要并发症.
- 识别风险因素和开发预测工具对于改善患者治疗结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 研究关闭柱骨骨折中与术后SSI相关的风险因素.
- 在这个患者群体中建立SSI风险的nomogram预测模型.
主要方法:
- 分析了516名患有闭塞柱骨折的患者队列.
- 患者被分为培训 (387) 和验证 (129) 组.
- 单变量和多变量考克斯分析确定了独立的风险因素;使用ROC和校准图表开发并验证了名图.
主要成果:
- 在71名患者 (培训) 和23名患者 (验证) 中发生了SSI.
- 确定了独立的风险因素:年龄,手术前血糖,手术时间,切尔内分类和骨折分类.
- 诺米图表表现出强大的预测性能 (AUC: 0.898培训,0.880验证) 具有良好的校准 (霍斯默-莱梅展示P=0.125).
结论:
- 开发的诺莫格拉姆模型表现出极好的区分和校准.
- 这种工具可以有效地预测为柱骨骨折进行手术的患者的SSI风险.
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