使用ARIMA模型预测阿尔及利亚的每日确诊的COVID-19病例
Messis Abdelaziz1,2, Adjebli Ahmed3, Ayeche Riad4
1Université de Bordj Bou Arréridj, El-Anasser, Bordj Bou Arréridj, Algérie.
概括
使用自行回归集成移动平均数 (ARIMA) 模型预测阿尔及利亚的COVID-19病例证明非常准确. 阿里马模型有效预测疾病趋势,显示不到5%的变化与观察到的COVID-19数据.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- COVID-19 构成了全球健康的重大威胁.
- 阿尔及利亚和其他国家一样,在管理大流行病方面面临着挑战.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测阿尔及利亚的COVID-19病例.
- 评估时间序列模型对疾病预测的有用性.
主要方法:
- 利用了2020年3月21日至2020年11月26日每天确认的COVID-19病例数据.
- 使用自回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型 (0,1,1) 进行预测.
- 使用过的Minitab 17软件用于数据分析和预测.
主要成果:
- 在确定的预测间隔内,ARIMA模型准确地预测了观察到的COVID-19病例.
- 病例,康复和死亡的预测趋势与实际报告的数据密切匹配.
- 在100%的预测中,预测和观察病例之间的差异小于5%,实现了高准确度.
结论:
- 自主回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型是预测阿尔及利亚COVID-19趋势的有效工具.
- 最佳选择的共变量增强了ARIMA模型的预测能力.
- 时间序列分析为流行病期间的公共卫生策略提供了宝贵的见解.
相关概念视频
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
152
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
152
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
7.4K
The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
7.4K
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
411
Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
411
Pie Chart
14.2K
A pie chart (or a pie graph) is a circular graphical chart or a pictorial representation of categorical data. It is divided into slices of pie each indicating numerical proportions. It is also used to show the relative sizes of data in a single chart.
In a pie chart, the central angle, the arc length of each slice, and the area are directly proportional to the quantity or percentage it represents. Some real-world examples that can be depicted using pie charts include marks obtained by students...
In a pie chart, the central angle, the arc length of each slice, and the area are directly proportional to the quantity or percentage it represents. Some real-world examples that can be depicted using pie charts include marks obtained by students...
14.2K
Prediction Intervals
2.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.3K
Econometric Views (EViews)
171
Econometric Views, often stylized as EViews, is a package that merges statistical analysis with econometric studies. It is designed to provide tools for time series analysis, forecasting, and econometric model simulation. The software originated from MicroTSP software and has evolved significantly since its inception in 1981. The history of EViews is marked by a continuous effort to enhance its computational speed and user interface. It was initially developed for large computing systems but...
171


