预测大峡谷国家公园的气候变化引起的热相关疾病风险 游客
Danielle E Buttke1, Brinkley Raynor2, Gregor W Schuurman1
1Natural Resource Stewardship and Science Directorate, National Park Service, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
PloS one
|August 9, 2023
概括
到2100年,气候变化将使大峡谷游客的热相关疾病 (HRIs) 增加137%. 公园管理人员必须调整策略,专注于预防教育和救援工作的肩膀季节.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 气候变化是一个重大的公共卫生威胁,极端高温导致的死亡人数超过任何其他天气事件.
- 全球气温的上升增加了与热相关疾病 (HRIs) 的风险,特别是对大峡谷国家公园 (GCNP) 等公共土地的游客来说.
- 诸如体力疲劳,突然暴露于热量和缺乏适应性资源等因素会增加HRI风险.
研究的目的:
- 分析GCNP访客的天气模式和HRIs之间的相关性.
- 在各种气候变化场景下预测未来的HRI率.
- 为土地管理机构提供关于更新公共土地风险减缓战略的信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自GCNP的历史HRI数据,每日访问记录和天气数据 (温度,湿度).
- 基于已确定的数据,开发了基于HRI风险的预测模型.
- 从相结合模型相互比较项目的第五阶段使用气候预测来预测未来的HRI风险.
主要成果:
- HRI发生率与每日最高温度和最低相对湿度有很强的相关性.
- 在肩膀季节,HRIs更为普遍.
- 预计到2100年,HRI将增加29% - 137%,假设访问率保持不变.
结论:
- 气候变化将加剧GCNP游客的HRI风险,挑战确保安全娱乐体验的使命.
- 肩膀季节的风险增加为加强预防性搜救和公众教育提供了一个关键的窗口.
- 对于公共土地管理者来说,积极适应风险管理策略至关重要,以应对不断升级的HRIs负担.
相关概念视频
01:28Factors Affecting Body Temperature
4.4K
As a nurse, it is vital to understand the factors affecting body temperature to monitor variations and effectively evaluate deviations from regular.
Factors may include:
Factors may include:
4.4K
01:50Global Climate Change
24.5K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.5K
01:29Decreased Body Temperature
651
A decreased body temperature can occur in patients with hypothermia and frostbite. Heat loss with extended cold exposure overpowers the body's ability to create heat, resulting in hypothermia. Core temperature readings help classify hypothermia. Mild hypothermia is temperatures between 32 °C (89.6 °F) and 35°C (95 °F) and is caused by impaired thermoregulation. Moderate hypothermia is temperatures between 28 C (82.4 °F) and 32 °C (89.6 °F) caused by...
651
01:26Requirements for Human Life
8.3K
The Earth and its atmosphere have provided humans with air, water, and food, but these are not the only requirements for survival. Humans also require a specific range of temperature and pressure that the Earth and its atmosphere provides.
Oxygen
Atmospheric air is only about 20 percent oxygen, but that oxygen is a key component of the chemical reactions that keep the body alive, including the reactions that produce ATP. Brain cells are susceptible to a lack of oxygen because they require a...
Oxygen
Atmospheric air is only about 20 percent oxygen, but that oxygen is a key component of the chemical reactions that keep the body alive, including the reactions that produce ATP. Brain cells are susceptible to a lack of oxygen because they require a...
8.3K
02:45Responses to Heat and Cold Stress
13.6K
Every organism has an optimum temperature range within which healthy growth and physiological functioning can occur. At the ends of this range, there will be a minimum and maximum temperature that interrupt biological processes.
13.6K
01:25Increased Body Temperature
708
A body temperature above 38°C (100.4 °F) is known as fever or pyrexia, and a person with fever is termed 'febrile.' Typically, the hypothalamus, a part of the brain that acts as the body's thermostat, regulates body temperature through a thermoregulatory setpoint. It receives signals from cold and warm thermal receptors throughout the body and adjusts the body's temperature accordingly. Fever occurs when this hypothalamic setpoint is altered, usually in...
708