科学结果的可预测性错觉:即使是专家也会把推断的不确定性和结果的变化性混起来
Sam Zhang1, Patrick R Heck2, Michelle N Meyer3
1Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309.
概括
科学家们往往专注于统计准确性,忽视了结果的变化. 想象两者都能提高对科学发现的理解,防止对治疗效果的高估,即使对于专家来说也是如此.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 数据可视化 数据可视化
- 科学沟通科学沟通
背景情况:
- 科学传播传统上强调推断的不确定性,而不是结果的可变性.
- 这种不平衡可能导致对科学发现及其影响的误解.
研究的目的:
- 调查不同的不确定性可视化如何影响科学结果的感知.
- 为了确定可视化推断不确定性和结果变异性是否能提高准确性.
主要方法:
- 进行了三个预先注册的随机实验.
- 参与者 (医疗专业人员,数据科学家,教师) 看到的结果可视化只有推断的不确定性,只有结果的可变性,或两者兼而有之.
- 分析了有关发现规模和重要性问题的答案.
主要成果:
- 仅仅对推断不确定性的可视化导致了对治疗效果的显著高估,即使在专家中也是如此.
- 描述推断的不确定性和结果的变化都导致了更准确的感知.
- 当表现出两种不确定性时,对调查结果的主观印象在很大程度上保持不变.
结论:
- 仅显示推理不确定性的常见做法可能会扭曲专家对科学结果的理解.
- 通过可视化推断的不确定性和结果的变化,可以提高对科学发现的准确感知.
- 改进的数据可视化实践对于有效的科学沟通至关重要.
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