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目前和预计的热浪归因于澳大利亚的职业伤害,疾病和相关经济负担
Matthew A Borg1, Jianjun Xiang2, Olga Anikeeva1
1School of Public Health, University of Adelaide, 50 Rundle Mall, Adelaide, SA 5000, Australia.
Environmental research
|August 9, 2023
概括
全球变暖在热浪期间导致了大量的职业病和职业伤害 (OIIs). 实施热适应政策可以减少这些可预防的OIIs和澳大利亚的经济负担.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 职业健康 职业健康 职业健康
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 全球变暖带来了巨大的成本,包括职业病和职业伤害 (OIIs) 的成本.
- 热浪越来越多地与升高的OII有关.
- 这项研究量化了因热浪而导致的OII及其在澳大利亚的经济影响.
研究的目的:
- 估计澳大利亚因热浪而造成的OII和相关成本的回顾性负担.
- 在不同的气候场景下,预测未来的热浪可归因的OII和经济成本.
- 为公众健康和工作场所的热适应政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自澳大利亚七个首都城市的气候和工人赔偿索赔数据 (2005年7月~2018年6月).
- 使用过度热因子定义的热浪.
- 估计的OII和成本,根据RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景预测到2030年和2050年的结果.
主要成果:
- 热浪显著增加了OIIs的风险和成本,特别是在严重和极端事件期间.
- 每年,0.13%的OIIs (120例) 和0.25%的成本 (4,300万澳元) 是由热浪造成的.
- 根据RCP8.5的预测,到2050年OI预计为0.23%,在两种RCP情景下,到2030年成本显著增加.
结论:
- 热浪对OII和经济负担有着重要且可预防的贡献.
- 预计未来OII和成本将增加,特别是在极端热浪期间.
- 专注于适应热量的工作场所和公共卫生政策对于减轻与热有关的病率和成本至关重要.
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