全球短期死亡风险和与热带气旋相关的负担从1980年到2019年:一个多国时间序列研究研究
Wenzhong Huang1, Shanshan Li1, Thomas Vogt2
1Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|August 9, 2023
概括
热带气旋在暴露后两周内显著增加死亡风险,每十年导致全球近10万例过度死亡. 这种负担在空间和时间上有所不同,在加勒比海和南亚等地区的上升趋势.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 热带气旋对死亡率的全球影响尚不清楚.
- 这项研究评估了1980年至2019年间热带气旋造成的短期死亡风险和负担.
研究的目的:
- 评估归因于热带气旋的死亡风险的全球时空模式.
- 量化与热带气旋暴露相关的过度死亡和死亡率.
主要方法:
- 1980-2019年全球风速数据使用参数风场模型进行估计.
- 分析了来自14个国家的341个地点的每日死亡率和温度数据.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型和元回归来评估气旋死亡率的关联和促成因素.
主要成果:
- 热带气旋暴露在暴露后的两周内使死亡率增加了6%.
- 据估计,全球每十年有97,430例过度死亡与热带气旋有关.
- 东亚和南亚的过度死亡人数最多,而东南亚和拉丁美洲/加勒比地区的死亡率和比例最高.
结论:
- 短期的热带气旋暴露给全球带来了严重的死亡负担,带来了异质的时空模式.
- 对于高负担地区,迫切需要深入的流行病学研究,以告知针对性干预措施,防止越来越多的不良健康影响.
- 了解这些模式对于制定减轻热带气旋在不断变化的气候中对健康影响的战略至关重要.
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