奶牛场管理中的反思维:为群体动态建模系统动态
A S Atzori1, B Atamer Balkan1, A Gallo2
1Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39, 07100 Sassari, Italy; System Dynamics Italian Chapter, Italy.
Animal : an international journal of animal bioscience
|August 9, 2023
概括
本研究介绍了用于奶牛场管理的系统动态建模,使用反思维来准确预测牛奶供应量并优化牛群组成. 开发的模型有效地捕捉到农场动态,并支持知情决策.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 系统科学 系统科学
- 运营研究 运营研究
背景情况:
- 系统视角和系统动态在乳制品农场管理中未得到充分利用.
- 有效的建模对于优化复杂的农业操作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 展示系统方法和反思维在奶牛场管理建模中的应用.
- 开发一个模型来预测牛奶交付和支持牛群管理决策.
主要方法:
- 利用因果循环和库存和流量图来建模奶牛场动态.
- 使用历史农场数据 (2016年1月至2019年12月) 开发并校准了一种库存和流动牛模型.
- 评估模型准确性与哺乳母牛和牛奶供应的历史记录相比.
主要成果:
- 确定了关键的反循环:一个平衡 (杀) 和两个强化 (小牛替换,母牛怀孕).
- 该模型准确地复制了哺乳母牛 (RMSE 2.8%) 和牛奶产量 (RMSE 5.2%) 的历史振荡.
- 该模型在预测长期牛奶供应和支持群体管理方面被证明是有效的.
结论:
- 系统动态建模与反思维是乳制品农场管理的有效方法.
- 开发的模型支持数据驱动的决策,用于群体组成和牛奶输送目标.
- 这种方法提高了对复杂的奶牛养殖系统的理解和管理.
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