一个预测性决策分析方法用于初级保健运营管理:双重记账策略设计和评估的案例研究
Yuan Zhou1, Amith Viswanatha1, Ammar Abdul Motaleb1
1Department of Industrial, Manufacturing, and Systems Engineering, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, Texas, USA.
使用预测分析和混合模拟的新决策分析方法通过管理患者不出现来优化初级保健业务. 这一战略平衡了诊所的生产力和效率,改善了患者的护理服务.
科学领域:
- 运营研究 运营研究
- 医疗保健服务研究 医疗服务研究
- 决策分析 决策分析
背景情况:
- 初级保健是必不可少的,但面临的运营挑战,如患者没有出现和人员短缺.
- 这些复杂性可能会对患者的治疗结果和诊所效率产生负面影响.
- 有效的运营管理对于优化初级保健提供至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出一种使用预测分析和混合模拟进行初级保健运营管理的决策分析方法.
- 专门针对家庭医疗诊所的患者不出诊治.
- 评估基于预测的双重预订策略的有效性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种结合预测分析和混合模拟 (基于代理和离散事件) 的决策分析方法.
- 在模拟框架内实施了一种患者不显示预测模型.
- 在家庭医学诊所进行了一项案例研究,以测试双重预订策略.
主要成果:
- 基于预测的双预约策略在诊所生产率 (患者吞吐量) 和效率 (访问周期,等待时间) 之间取得了最佳平衡.
- 基于场景的实验证明了不同双重记账策略对运营结果的影响.
- 该方法有效地管理了与患者不出现相关的不确定性.
结论:
- 拟议的混合决策分析方法可以显著改善初级保健业务管理.
- 这种方法为提高医疗保健机构的决策和系统性能提供了潜在的解决方案.
- 这种方法可以将其推广到各种医疗保健环境中,以获得更广泛的应用.
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