在中国使用系统动态模型预测建筑碳峰值场景
1School of Urban Economics and Management, Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Beijing, 100044, China.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|August 10, 2023
概括
中国中国中国中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 可持续发展 可持续发展 可持续发展
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化需要对碳排放采取紧急行动.
- 中国的建筑行业对国家碳排放做出了重大贡献,约占50%.
- 了解建筑碳峰值的时间和规模对于政策制定至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 预测中国建筑碳峰值的时间和价值.
- 分析各种发展场景对建筑碳排放的影响.
- 为实现中国碳峰值目标的战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 用于复杂系统模拟的系统动态建模.
- 对于因子分解的对数平均分数指数 (LMDI).
- 蒙特卡洛模拟用于概率预测.
主要成果:
- 根据基线,建筑碳排放量在2027年达到5.427亿的峰值.
- 不同的情景显示,峰值在2027年至2032年之间,价值在5427万至6329万之间.
- 综合模拟表明,2030年峰值概率为80%,为5,729-6,171万.
结论:
- 中国的建筑碳排放量预计将在2030年左右达到峰值.
- 场景分析突出了发展路径对排放轨迹的影响.
- 调查结果支持针对可持续建筑发展的有针对性的政策,以实现气候目标.
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