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基于极端价值理论的干旱风险概率模型.
Arkadiusz Piwowar1, Łukasz Kuźmiński2
1Department of Economics and Organization of Food Economy, Wroclaw University of Economics and Business, Komandorska Street 118/120, 53-345, Wrocław, Poland. arkadiusz.piwowar@ue.wroc.pl.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|August 10, 2023
概括
这项研究引入了新的概率模型,使用一般分布函数和标准化降水指数来测量干旱风险. 这些模型为量化干旱提供了一种创新的方法,可以在全球范围内应用.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
背景情况:
- 量化干旱风险对于水资源管理和气候变化适应至关重要.
- 现有的方法可能缺乏准确的风险评估的概率严谨性.
- 一般化分布函数和标准化降水指数为先进的干旱分析提供了潜力.
研究的目的:
- 为干旱风险量化开发和呈现原始的概率模型.
- 应用这些模型来评估特定地区的干旱风险.
- 引入干旱风险评估的创新方法.
主要方法:
- 使用通用分布函数进行极端价值分析.
- 使用标准化降水指数 (SPI) 进行干旱特征.
- 应用概率模型来量化干旱风险在定义的时间段.
主要成果:
- 开发了新的概率模型来量化干旱风险.
- 计算了波兰三个案例研究地区的概率干旱风险水平.
- 证明了模型在每个地区的四个五年期间的应用.
结论:
- 提出的概率模型为干旱风险量化提供了一种创新的方法.
- 该方法可适应在不同气候区域创建干旱风险指数.
- 该研究为评估和管理干旱风险提供了一个强大的框架.
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