可再生能源成本下降和气候变化限制了非洲水力发电扩张的需要
Angelo Carlino1,2, Matthias Wildemeersch2, Celray James Chawanda3
1Department of Electronics, Information, and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milano, Italy.
概括
非洲
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析
- 气候变化的影响
- 可再生能源经济学
背景情况:
- 为了满足不断增长的能源需求,
- 水利气候和社会经济变化给水电计划带来了重大不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 评估非洲拟建的水电容量的经济可行性.
- 分析不同情景下的非洲能源系统的未来.
- 确定风能和太阳能对水电的竞争力.
主要方法:
- 非洲能源系统的情景分析 (2020-2050年).
- 评估能源需求,土地使用变化和气候对水资源的影响.
- 对水电项目经济吸引力的评估.
主要成果:
- 只有40-68%的候选水电容量在经济上具有吸引力.
- 预计到2030年风能和太阳能将超过水电.
- 需要额外的每年1.8%至4%的投资以应对水气候变化.
结论:
- 水力发电的经济吸引力有限,风能和太阳能成为主要的能源.
- 增加投资和国际合作对于能源系统的可靠性和解决赤字至关重要.
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